The 2023 Oscar race is in full swing. Contenders likeSteven Spielberg’sThe Fabelmansandthe Daniels’Everything Everywhere All At Onceare looking to be the biggest hits with the televised awards, while films likeMartin McDonagh’sThe Banshees of InisherinandTodd Field’sTÁRare becoming increasingly important for the conversation.
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The acting categories might seem locked down, but that’s not the case. As happens every season, several contenders lurk from the shadows waiting for their chance to strike. These actors might not be sure bets, but they are more than dangerous enough to pull a shocking upset on the morning of nominations.
1Paul Mescal — ‘Aftersun’
Charlotte Wells' dramaAftersunmight be one of the year’s best films.Paul Mescalstars as a young father on a holiday vacation with his young daughter, played by the outstandingFrankie Corio. Thoughtful, delicate, and profoundly affecting,Aftersunis an exceptional look into the intricacies of familial relationships and the all-consuming and potentially devastating inner struggles plaguing everyday life.
Mescal delivers one of the year’s best performances, and critics' groups are embracing him. The Lead Actor category has only three certainties:Colin Farrell,Brendan Fraser, andAustin Butler, leaving room for two actors. Mescal could and frankly should be among the final five, and he could be, especially since he’ll surely receive a much-needed boost from the BAFTAs.
2Ana De Armas — ‘Blonde’
Andrew Dominik’s highly-fictionalizedBlondeis among2022’s most divisive movies. Based on the biographical fiction novel of the same name by celebrated authorJoyce Carol Oates, the film has been mired in controversy for its depiction of its subject,Marylin Monroe. However, the film’s one saving grace isAna de Armas' performance.
De Armas already received a Golden Globe and SAG nomination, cementing her as a top five candidate. WhileBlondewon’t play well with the Academy’s tastes, even the most cynical of voters will admit de Armas goes all-in with her performance.
3Jeremy Pope — ‘The Inspection’
Jeremy Popeis a revelation inElegance Bratton’s semi-autobiographical dramaThe Inspection.The film centers on a young man dealing with homophobia at home and in Marine’s boot camp. Pope carries the whole thing on his back, receiving some welcome assistance from the equally impressiveGabrielle Union.
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The Inspectionsometimes struggles to find something to say about its delicate subject matter, but Pope and Union elevate the material. He received a richly-deserved Golden Globe nomination for his performance, and a few critics' groups have singled him out for praise. Pope’s road to the Oscars is uncertain, but AMPAS often finds it in them to recognize independent productions and up-and-coming talents. Pope stands a real shot.
4Mia Goth — ‘Pearl’
Rule number one of the Academy Awards: AMPAS doesn’t like horror. They seldom recognize it, and it can even be said that they outright ignore it. How else could anyone explain the egregious absences ofToni ColetteforHereditaryandLupita Nyong’oforUs?The Oscars have recognized horror a few times, but they turn the other way more often than not when it comes to the genre.
This year, horror delivered another tour-de-force performance courtesy ofMia Goth. The actress delivers Oscar-worthy work in two ofTi West’s films,XandPearl; the latter has already earned her nominations in several critics' groups, putting her name among the many contenders for Lead Actress. It’s a long shot for sure, but the category is still unclear, with three slots up for grabs. Goth would need to campaignhard, but she could have a chance at a nomination.
5Woody Harrelson — ‘Triangle of Sadness’
Triangle of Sadnessmade a huge splash following the 2022 Cannes Film Festival, where it won the Palm d’Or. However, it seems to have lost momentum since, with only supporting playerDolly De Leonreceiving attention from major awards bodies.
However, it’s always unwise to bet againstWoody Harrelson. The actor has already received two unexpected Oscar nominations for his supporting performances in 2009’sThe Messengerand 2017’sThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Harrelson’s role inTriangle of Sadnessis flashy and memorable, the perfect combination to make him an unlikely but welcome surprise on nominations morning.
6Janelle Monáe — ‘Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery’
Rian Johnson’sGlass Onion: A Knives Out Mysteryisone of the best ensemble films of 2022.Daniel Craigreprises his role as Benoit Blanc, joined by an all-star cast includingEdward Norton,Kate Hudson, andKathryn Hahn. However,Janelle Monáewas the one who received the most attention for her dual performance in the film.
Monáe earned nominations from several critics' groups, although she missed every major precursor except for the Critics' Choice Awards. Her lack of recognition and the film’s overall underperformance at the SAGs is a bad sign for her Oscar campaign, but with Supporting Actress being such a chaotic category, she could find herself among the top 5.
7Brian Tyree Henry — ‘Causeway’
Apple TV+‘sCausewayisone of 2022’s most underrated films. It starsJennifer Lawrenceas a U.S. army soldier who suffers a traumatic brain injury during her tour in Afghanistan and gets sent home to New Orleans. The film chronicles her struggle to readapt to life while waiting for redeployment, withBrian Tyree Henryplaying a mechanic she befriends.
Although the film didn’t make much of an impression, Henry’s performance was lauded by critics. He missed every major precursor, but the Oscars love to spotlight an underrated performance almost every year. Henry is already a respected performer on his way to Oscar glory, andCausewaymight give him his first nomination.
8Nina Hoss — ‘TÁR’
Never discount the power of a great supporting performance, especially in a film bound to receive major love across the board.Todd Field’s challengingTÁRis a showcase forCate Blanchett, who will surely nab her eighth Oscar nomination and is a genuine threat for the win. However,Nina Hossdelivers a moving and memorable performance as Lydia Tár’s wife, one that might be too good for AMPAS to ignore.
The Academy will already be paying attention toTár– it’s a strong contender in multiple categories. Thus, Hoss could pull aMarina de Taviraand find herself among the top five in the Supporting Actress category. Stranger things have happened, and Hoss has the material to back the nomination up.
9Gabriel LaBelle — ‘The Fabelmans’
Steven Spielberg’sThe Fabelmansis one of this year’s strongest contenders for Best Picture. Deeply personal and with the “movies are dreams” element that the Oscars love, the film works as a recognition of Spielberg’s career and a testament to cinema’s power.
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Michelle WilliamsandPaul Danoare seemingly the film’s best shots at an acting nomination, but newcomerGabriel LaBellecould sneak his way into an especially erratic Lead Actor category. The Oscars love an ingénue, and Lead Actor has one spot for the taking and no clear candidate to take it. IfThe Fabelmansoverperforms, and it very well could, then LaBelle stands a real shot at a nomination.
10Taylor Russell — ‘Bones and All’
Following her breakthrough performance in 2019’sWaves,Taylor Russellis back in the awards circuit thanks to her lead performance inLuca Guadagnino’s horror romanceBones and All. Rusell earned positive reviews for her performance, winning the Marcello Mastroianni Award at the Venice Film Festival.
Russell faces an uphill battle for the nomination. For starters,Bones and All’s gnarly subject matter will be a deal-breaker for many. Horror is already a tough sell for Oscar voters, and the film underperformed at the box office. However, Russell is an emerging talent, and AMPAS loves to anoint those. It’s a long shot, but a nomination for Russell would be a pleasant surprise.
