In a surprise to absolutely no one, the first tracking forAvengers: Infinity Warhas the film pegged for a monumental opening weekend at the box office. PerTHR, Disney insiders are suggesting an opening weekend in the range of $175 million to $200 million, but studios are notoriously conservative with these kinds of numbers so as not to see the actual results become underwhelming. So that means we’re likely looking at an opening weekend over $200 million for the highly anticipated MCU sequel.
Only five movies ever have opened over $200 million, not adjusting for inflation. The first to do so, fittingly, was 2012’sThe Avengers—the crossover event that proved the Marvel Cinematic Universe could work. Here’s what the current Top 10 opening weekends of all time looks like:
1.Star Wars: The Force Awakens- $247,966,675
2.Star Wars: The Last Jedi- $220,009,584
3.Jurassic World- $208,806,270
4.Marvel’s The Avengers- $207,438,708
5.Black Panther- $202,003,951
6.Avengers: Age of Ultron- $191,271,109
7.Captain America: Civil War- $179,139,142
8.Beauty and the Beast (2017)- $174,750,616
9.Iron Man 3- $174,144,585
10.Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2- $169,189,427
The “oldest” movie on this list is the finalHarry Pottermovie, which opened seven years ago. The increasing frequencies of breaking opening weekend records is largely a consequence of studios’ high risk/high reward model. No longer do studios routinely make mid-budget dramas; instead they invest atonof money in “event” films that have to make $500 million just to break even. So a $200 million opening weekend is great to be sure, but it’s just a fraction of the way towards profitability, whereas something like a modestly budgetedITopening to $123 million is in some ways even more impressive.
Infinity Warbrings together nearly every MCU character we’ve seen thus far, and so it seems fair to assume it’ll surpass the opening weekends of bothAvengersmovies, and could even soar toForce Awakenslevels. Can it break $247 million? Marvel’s M.O. has been to surpass expectations at every turn, so it’d be foolish to think that’s out of the question.
Then of course we have to ask how high this thing will go during its theatrical run. Many are saying that beatingBlack Panther’s domestic total of $655.6 million is a given, but I’m not so sure.Infinity Waris the “bigger” movie, but it also has less legroom. It has about three weeks alone in terms of blockbuster openings, but then we getDeadpool 2,Solo: A Star Wars Story,Ocean’s 8, andIncredibles 2to start crowding the marketplace.Black Panther, meanwhile, had a ton of runway to entice fans to keep coming back. So we’ll see.
For now, though, we can pretty much guarantee thatInfinity War’s opening weekend box office is going to make history.
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