On this week’sFor Your Consideration, Collider’s awards expertsScott Mantz,Perri NemiroffandJeff Sneiderbreak down the Oscar nominations as well as all the snubs and surprises therein. The gang keeps the focus on Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting races, so if you want analysis of below-the-line categories, you’ll have to tune in again next week.
Okay, first thing’s first – do we have a new frontrunner for Best Picture? Netflix, the streaming service, picked up 10 nominations forAlfonso Cuarón’sRoma, which is as well-liked and admired as any film in this race.Romafailed to earn an all-important nomination for editing, which is one of the most accurate predictors of Best Picture, but it did score a surprise nomination for supporting actressMarina de Tavira, who didn’t win a single precursor honor in the lead-up to today’s announcement. For all the talk about Netflix stigma and the idea that voters would holdRoma’s distribution platform against it, it certainly doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.
Scott and Perri are confident thatRomais now the movie to beat in the Best Picture race since the Academy snubbed the two directors ofGreen BookandA Star Is Born, which are perceived to be the biggest threats toRoma. Ever the contrarian, Jeff feels strongly thatRomawill not win Best Picture, and that those other two films are still strong contenders despite evidence suggesting otherwise. He also warns his co-hosts not to dismissBlack Panther, which isn’t out of the race yet even though it missed out on writing and directing nominations.
Roma’sYalitza Apariciosnagged a Best Actress nomination, and while it wasn’t as big of a surprise as de Tavira’s nomination, it’s still a huge deal considering she had never acted before. Most people believe Aparicio snuck into the fifth and final slot, but Jeff thinks she stands a better chance to win thanMelissa McCarthy, who hasn’t been as ubiquitous on the campaign trail this year. Scott is still standing firmly inGlenn Close’s corner, but Jeff has the sneaking suspicion thatOlivia Colmanhas the edge, given how many nominations the Academy showered uponThe Favourite.Lady Gagacould still throw a wrench in the race, but voters may feel the “Shallow” singer is a shoo-in to win a statue for Best Song. When Jeff starts to suggest aKendrick Lamarupset, Perri shuts him down right quick.
Best Actor feels like the most up-for-grabs Oscar, as the threeFYChosts can’t seem to agree on a frontrunner. Perri thinks that voters may feel bad forBradley Cooper, who was snubbed in the Best Director category, and throw him a sympathy vote for Best Actor. That’s sound logic to Jeff, but even so, he still thinks thatChristian Balehas the edge. Even though he’s playingDick CheneyinVice, Bale has never won a lead actor Oscar, and his physical transformation will be tough to contend with. Scott, however, is riding theRami Malektrain all the way to the Dolby podium. We’ll see if Cooper can upset either of this month’s Golden Globe winners.
TheFYChosts agree that Cuarón is the clear frontrunner for Best Director, especially with Cooper relegated to the sidelines in that category, and they’re also betting onMahershala AliandRegina Kingto take home supporting acting honors forGreen BookandIf Beale Street Could Talk, which missed out on a Best Picture nomination on Tuesday, much to the dismay of its distributor, Annapurna Pictures.
To keep up with all thingsFor Your Consideration, follow the gang on Twitter and Instagram at @MovieMantz, @PNemiroffand @TheInSneider. Hit up the comments section and let us know what you thought of today’s Oscar nominations and whether Scott or Jeff will win the Best Picture bet involvingRoma. Stay tuned next week for analysis of the below-the-line categories, includingSpider-Man’s chances in the animated race, and we’llFYC-ya later!
