I’ve been covering the Oscars professionally for nearly a decade now, and this is hands down the wildest season I’ve ever been a part of. I’m used to close calls between a couple of contenders and smear campaigns that can bring certain films down. But this has been a loud, contentious race that is quite frankly all over the place. Best Picture ispretty much wide openafter the various guilds failed to coalesce behind one, two, or even three major contenders, and we’re dealing with an Academy whose voter demographic is in the midst of changing dramatically. And this is all to say nothing of the fiasco that is the Oscars telecast itself.
Precedents were made to be broken, and indeed as the Academy has grown younger and more diverse, they’ve strayed from “statistics” that point to certain winners. Stats told us thatLa La Landhad Best Picture in the bag, and yetMoonlighttook home the big prize with only one major guild win. So when it comes to predicting the big winners this year, there’s a lot more guesswork involved, and it’ll be mighty interesting to see where things land on Sunday night.
Having covered this year’s race since long ago, back whenA Star Is Bornwas the frontrunner infivemajor categories, I’m mostly just ready to see where things fall. So without further ado, here are my final Oscar predictions in every single category.
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
A Star Is Born
This is the most wide-open Best Picture race in recent memory. The Producers Guild Award went toGreen Book, the Directors Guild Award went toRoma, and the Screen Actors Guild Award went toBlack Panther. The guilds have not rallied support behind a single frontrunner like in years past, which means it’s kind of anyone’s to win.Green Bookcertainly has a shot, and seemingly hasn’t been damaged a bit by all of its controversies.Black Pantherwinning would be a monumental achievement, and a move towards more populist entertainment.
But I still think thepreferential ballotfavorsRoma. Even ifRomaisn’t your #1 pick, recognition for the craft and skill involved is likely to land it a lot of #2 and #3 votes. Whereas something likeBohemian Rhapsodyis seemingly far too divisive to win—and yet it’s been trucking right along. If it does pull off the W, it’ll be the worst-reviewed winner in recent history.
Then there’sA Star Is Born, which was primed and ready to coast though the season before it fell prey to Early Frontrunner Syndrome, which similarly struck films likeThe Social NetworkandLa La Land. But perhaps the Academy has one major surprise in its hat andBradley Cooperpicks up his first and only win for the Oscar season. It would certainly be a fitting end to the strangest awards run I can remember.
But I think Best Picture comes down toRoma,Green Book, andBlack Panther. I could see a path to victory for all three, whereas I think it’s harder for the rest (or maybe I just don’t want to think aboutBohemian Rhapsodywinning a freaking Best Picture Oscar).Romais a towering cinematic achievement and I think its performance on a preferential ballot gives it the leg up, plus it won the BAFTA Best Picture trophy as well, so I’m going with that.
Will Win:Roma
Could Win:Green Book
Should Win:A Star Is Born
Should Have Been Nominated:Minding the Gap
Best Director
Spike Lee –BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski –Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos –The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron –Roma
Adam McKay –Vice
Only seven times since the DGA’s inception back in 1948 has the winner not gone on to take the Best Director Oscar, and it’s only happened twice since 2000, so you’d be foolish to bet against it.Alfonso Cuaróntook home the DGA so this is probably his to lose, but there is an ever-so-slight chance thatSpike Leecould play the spoiler. But the safe money’s on Cuarón.
Will Win:Alfonso Cuaron
Could Win:Spike Lee
Should Win:Alfonso Cuaron
Should Have Been Nominated:Bradley Cooper
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio –Roma
Glenn Close –The Wife
Olivia Colman –The Favourite
Lady Gaga –A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy –Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Best Actress race seemed prime to be down toLady Gagavs.Olivia Colman, butGlenn Closemade a grand entrance with her Golden Globe win in January and has been the frontrunner ever since. She has a number of things going for her—she’s never won before, she’s beloved, and shenailedthat Golden Globes speech. This is one of those “it’s her time” wins that the Academy likes to award, but if you’re looking to go with a dark horse, Olivia Colman won the BAFTA and couldmaybepull off an upset.
Will Win:Glenn Close
Could Win:Olivia Colman
Should Win:Olivia Colman
Should Have Been Nominated:Carey Mulligan,Wildlife
Best Actor
Christian Bale –Vice
Bradley Cooper –A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe –At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek –Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen –Green Book
The SAG Best Actor winner has gone on to win the Best Actor Oscar 13 of the last 14 years in a row, and there’s no reason to think it’s going to be different this year.Rami Malekhas been the face ofBohemian Rhapsody’s unlikely awards surge over the past couple of months, and it very much looks as though he’ll be taking home his first Oscar on Sunday. Sorry, Bradley.
Will Win:Rami Malek
Could Win:Christian Bale
Should Win:Bradley Cooper
Should Have Been Nominated:Ethan Hawke,First Reformed
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams –Vice
Marina de Tavira –Roma
Regina King –If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone –The Favourite
Rachel Weisz –The Favourite
This is actually one of the hardest categories to predict this year.Regina Kinghas been the presumed frontunner for months, but she wasn’t even nominated by SAG or BAFTA. Still, she’s a beloved figure in the industry, and her acceptance speeches have been lovely so far. I think she takes it, but watch out forRachel Weiszto play the spoiler in what has historically been a category packed with surprise wins.
Will Win:Regina King
Could Win:Rachel Weisz
Should Win:Rachel Weisz
Should Have Been Nominated:Elizabeth Debicki,Widows
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali –Green Book
Adam Driver –BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott –A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant –Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell –Vice
Each awards season there’s one actor who just seems to steamroll through every precursor award and glide on up to the Oscar stage. This year that actor isMahershala Ali.
Will Win:Mahershala Ali
Could Win:Richard E. Grant
Should Win:Richard E. Grant
Should Have Been Nominated:Jeff Bridges,Bad Times at the El Royale
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs– Joel and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman– Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?– Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk– Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born– Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters
This is a stacked category. I’d have more confidence inIf Beale Street Could Talkhere if the Academy had shown more love towards the film overall, but its lack of major nominations seems to signal to me that there’s not a huge quantity of passionate support.Can You Ever Forgive Me?took the WGA award here and is a solid contender, but I’m going withBlacKkKlansman—which won the BAFTA—because I’m thinking it’s going to be hard for many Academy members to resist voting to giveSpike Leehis first competitive Oscar.
Will Win:BlacKkKlansman
Could Win:If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win:BlacKkKlansman
Should Have Been Nominated:The Hate U Give
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite– Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed– Paul Schrader
Green Book– Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Roma– Alfonso Cuaron
Vice– Adam McKay
IfGreen Bookwins in this category, watch for it to take Best Picture as well. But since I haveRomafor Best Picture, and that film’s screenplay is somewhat sparse (and byAlfonso Cuarón’s own admission somewhat improvised), I’m going with BAFTA-winnerThe Favourite. In recent years, the Academy has looked to these screenplay categories as a way to award critically acclaimed films they’re not voting for in the major categories (see:Her,Get Out), so I think this is a nice way of recognizing one of the year’s best-reviewed films. In that vein, I wouldn’t be shocked ifFirst Reformedtook it either.
Will Win:The Favourite
Should Win:First Reformed
Should Have Been Nominated:Bad Times at the El Royale
Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum– Lebanon
Cold War– Poland
Never Look Away– Germany
Roma– Mexico
Shoplifters– Japan
I both think this is a no-brainer win forRomaand also admit there’s a slight chance the critically belovedCold Warcould take it. The safe money is onRoma.
Could Win:Cold War
Should Win:Roma
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
This one seems obvious, but it’s actually not. Disney has won this category nine of the last 10 times, including whenBig Hero 6shocked over the critically acclaimedHow to Train Your Dragon 2. Moreover,Phil LordandChris Miller’sThe LEGO Moviewas famously passed over for a nomination here. Disney has more voters in the Academy than any other studio, so don’t be shocked ifIncredibles 2takes this, but I’m gonna try to be optimistic and go with the groundbreakingSpider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.
