Oscar predictions week is here, folks! All weeklong, I’ll be rolling out my Oscar Beat Academy Awards predictions in the major categories, and we kick things off with the Best Actress category. This is one that’s usually either insanely crowded or disappointingly thin, and unfortunately this year it’s a case of the latter. There are a couple of huge performances that are sure to get nods and a few hopefuls on the outside looking in, but the competition isn’t as fierce as it was last year. So without further ado, let’s get started.
Frontrunners
Renee Zellweger –Judy
Scarlett Johansson –Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan –Little Women
Charlize Theron –Bombshell
Alfre Woodard –Clemency
There was talk at the Telluride Film Festival back in early September that this race wasover. Go home everyone not namedRenee Zellweger. And indeed, the actress (who previously won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar forCold Mountain) delivers a show-stopping turn as Judy Garland in the better-than-expectedJudy. It’s the kind of big, flashy, transformative performance that usually turns heads, and ifJoaquin Phoenixis going to be lauded for his physically challenging turn inJoker, Zellweger has more than earned the right to be singled out forJudy. As for her chances of winning, this has gone one of two ways in the past. Either the inevitable becomes reality, like withJulianne MooreinStill Alice, or the inevitable gets shockingly shut down, like withGlenn CloseinThe Wife. For now, you’re able to save a seat at the nominations roundtable for Zellweger, that’s for sure.
The other major leading actress performance this year isScarlett JohanssoninMarriage Story, filmmakerNoah Baumbach’s crushing chronicle of divorce. The Netflix film is expected to be a serious contender in all major categories, and that includes Johansson for Best Actress. The actress delivers a fittingly subtle and commanding turn as one half of a married couple going through the process of divorce. Both Johansson andAdam Driverget a few individual scenes in which to shine, and shine Johansson does in perhaps the best performance of her career. She’s likely to pick up her first-ever Oscar nomination for it.
Then there’sAlfre WoodardinClemency, an indie drama that premiered at Sundance earlier this year and drew raves for Woodard’s performance. The “problem” withClemencyis it’s a film about a death row prison warden, so it may be tough to get voters to actually see this performance. That said, Woodard has a significant amount of heat at the moment, so here’s hoping that spurs people to move this screener to the top of their pile over the holiday season.
There is also a pair of performances in two films that haven’t yet been widely released, but have been screened by critics and industry folks.Saoirse Ronancould be heading for her fourth Oscar nomination before the age of 26 for her turn as Jo inGreta Gerwig’sLittle Women, which may be another serious awards contender just like Gerwig’s previous filmLady Bird. There’s alsoCharlize Theron’s unrecognizable performance as Megyn Kelly in the Fox News dramaBombshell. The film itself seems to be dividing folks a bit, but all appear to agree that Theron’s performance has the goods.
In the Mix
Awkwafina –The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo –Harriet
Lupita Nyong’o –Us
Helen Mirren –The Good Liar
Jodie Turner-Smith –Queen & Slim
Jessie Buckley –Wild Rose
Elisabeth Moss –Her Smell
On the outside looking in there are some very solid performances, but as you can see the list is frustratingly short.Awkwafinaprobably has the best shot out of this bunch to make it in for her quietly emotional work inThe Farewell, but that may depend on how strongly the Academy responds to the A24 indie overall. Recognition in the critics groups awards throughout December could be the key to vaulting her and some of these other candidates into the spotlight for Oscar voters.
There’s alsoLupita Nyong’o’s stunning dual roles inJordan Peele’sUs. The film was a box office hit but faded much quicker thanGet Outdid, and Universal doesn’t appear to be pushing the film as hard or as seriously as they didGet Out. Regardless, Nyong’o is wholly deserving of recognition here for what, to my mind, is one of the best performances of the year.
There’s alsoCynthia Erivo’s turn as historical hero Harriet Tubman in the biopicHarriet. The film itself has received a bit of a lukewarm response, but Erivo’s performance has been singled out. If she doesn’t make it in this year, it feels like the actress is destined for Oscar glorysomedayafter her breakout turns inBad Times at the El RoyaleandWidows.
Helen Mirrencould possibly be in the mix for the well-reviewed thrillerThe Good Liar, and depending on howQueen & Slimhits, we could see some support for newcomerJodie Turner-Smith. The studio Gunpowder & Sky is also pushingElisabeth MossforAlex Ross Perry’s indieHer Smell, but if I had to put my money on a dark horse in this race it would beJessie BuckleyforWild Rose. The UK-backed film has quietly been gaining steam since it was released this summer, and there is passionate support for a nomination for Buckley, who you may also know from HBO’sChernobyl.
Time will tell how this race shakes out, but as you can see, this is unfortunately a year in which there simply aren’t very many leading actress performances to choose from. That’s not to denigrate the women whodiddo outstanding work this year and have landed on this shortlist, but to point out Hollywood’s lack of complex or challenging female roles on the big screen. Alas.
Stay tuned, for tomorrow we dig into the Best Actor race.
