When it comes to predicting the Oscars, one of the major hurdles early in the season is figuring out in which categories some of the actors will be competing. Someone likeChristoph WaltzinDjango Unchainedis more of a co-lead performance, but it’s on the studio to decide where to campaign for the actor, and on the Academy to either accept or re-categorize (studios campaign for a specific category, but Oscar voters write in which category they’re voting on their own). In the case of Waltz andDjango, he was submitted for Best Supporting Actor and walked away with the win, thanks in no small part to his extensive screentime compared to his fellow nominees.
This year’s race already had a few curiosities of its own, includingOlivia Colman’s critically acclaimed turn as Queen Anne inYorgos Lanthimos’ period comedyThe Favourite. The film drew wildly positive responses on the festival circuit, but everyone had plenty of praise not just for Colman but alsoEmma StoneandRachel Weisz. There was a serious question of where each actress would be competing, as Colman is technically the lead but cases could also be made for Stone and Weisz to go lead, or for Colman to go supporting. And given how immensely Colman’s performance was praised, the decision of which category in which to compete would have a major ripple effect for the entire Oscar race.
Well yesterday we finally learned that Fox Searchlight has decided to submit Colman in the Best Actress category, which means Stone and Weisz will be competing in Supporting. This means that Colman is now the early frontrunner to win the Best Actress trophy, which yes, meansLady Gaga’s got some serious competition.
Let’s first take a look at how this affects the Best Actress category. Up until now, there really hadn’t been a frontrunner just yet. Gaga is definitely in the mix andA Star Is Bornis expected to score a ton of nominations and probably quite a few wins, but she wasn’t necessarily a sure thing. As for performances that have been seen already,Melissa McCarthy(Can You Ever Forgive Me?),Nicole Kidman(Destroyer),Yalitza Aparicio(ROMA),Julia Roberts(Ben Is Back),Toni Collette(Hereditary) andViola Davis(Widows) are all in the conversation, but this category is far from firmed up. Still to come areSaoirse RonaninMary Queen of ScotsandFelicity JonesinOn the Basis of Sex, with both of those films set to debut at AFI Fest. Then there’s also the possibility thatEmily Bluntis in the mix forMary Poppins Returns, but that likely won’t be screening for Academy voters until late November at the earliest.
Colman’s run for Best Actress does, however, open up Best Supporting Actress a bit. She would have been a surefire winner had she gone that route, but now herFavouriteco-stars Stone and Weisz have shots, as doClaire Foy(First Man) andElizabeth Debicki(Widows). But the biggest “winners” from Colman going lead areAmy AdamsandRegina King. Adams’ turn as Lynn Cheney inVicehas yet to be seen but is already generating buzz, and King’s work inIf Beale Street Could Talkhas beenthebreakout performance fromBarry Jenkins’ drama. Best Supporting Actress is shaping up to be a heck of a category.
So there you have it, Colman is going Best Actress and the Oscar race will adjust accordingly. Stay tuned folks.
